12 Bingölspor 1–10 Ağrı 1970: Result & Stats

12 Bingölspor

FT

1 – 10

HT: 0 – 6

Ağrı 1970

Y. Aleci 63'

A. Kutlu 66', 60'

B. Seres 56', 21'

K. Baş 49'

M. Torun 41', 35', 13'

A. Sevinç 33'

M. Yavaş 31'

9/14/2022

Türkiye Kupası · 1st RoundBingöl Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

12 Bingölspor39%

×Draw19%

Ağrı 197042%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

12 BingölsporExpected goals in this matchAğrı 1970

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

2.42

12 Bingölspor

2.33

Ağrı 1970

2.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

1.83

3.00

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

12 Bingölspor

2.00

Ağrı 1970

1.83

allows per match

12 Bingölspor

3.00

Ağrı 1970

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

12 Bingölspor+0.00on par

Ağrı 1970+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

12 Bingölspor ↓

Ağrı 1970 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

12 Bingölspor or draw

58%

12 Bingölspor or Ağrı 1970

81%

Draw or Ağrı 1970

61%

Winning margin

12 Bingölspor wins by 2+

22%

Ağrı 1970 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

12 Bingölspor 1+ goals

90%

12 Bingölspor 2+ goals

67%

12 Bingölspor 3+ goals

41%

Ağrı 1970 1+ goals

91%

Ağrı 1970 2+ goals

69%

Ağrı 1970 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

12 Bingölspor (draw refunded)

48%

Ağrı 1970 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

12 Bingölspor at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Ağrı 1970 away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

12 Bingölspor attack 2.00 + Ağrı 1970 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Ağrı 1970 attack 1.83 + 12 Bingölspor defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

12 Bingölspor scores more

39%

level

19%

Ağrı 1970 scores more

42%

Ağrı 1970 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ağrı 1970 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

21'

31'

33'

35'

41'

46'

46'

F. Şadinoğlu← T. Yıldırımhan

46'

B. Kişi← B. Şadinoğlu

46'

A. Kutlu← A. Sevinç

46'

A. Yıldırım← A. Öden

46'

K. Baş← M. Torun

49'

K. Baş

56'

B. Seres

58'

K. Karaoğlan← B. Gücüyetmez

60'

63'

65'

66'

70'

M. Kavaklı← A. Kartal

12

Ağrı

24

Cörüt

91

▼

Öden

4

Altunbuda

21

Gediklioğ

54

▼

Kartal

20

⚽2

Seres

33

▼

Gücüyetme

27

Bakan

11

⚽

▼

Sevinç

7

⚽

Yavaş

10

⚽3

▼

Torun

1

▼

5

7

4

10

20

▼

Özden

9

⚽

Aleci

8

▼

Şadinoğlu

17

▼

Çiçek

3

Canlı

15

Köktaş

Manager: A. Ayata

46'▲Y. Çakır←▼D. Çiçek

46'▲F. Şadinoğlu←▼T. Yıldırımhan

46'▲B. Kişi←▼B. Şadinoğlu

65'▲S. Gürbüz←▼M. Özden

12 Bingölspor substitutes

2Çakır12Şadinoğlu14Kişi6Gürbüz

Manager: Y. Yeşilova

46'▲A. Kutlu←▼A. Sevinç

46'▲A. Yıldırım←▼A. Öden

46'▲K. Baş←▼M. Torun

58'▲K. Karaoğlan←▼B. Gücüyetmez

70'▲M. Kavaklı←▼A. Kartal

Ağrı 1970 substitutes

9Kutlu15Yıldırım28Baş18Karaoğlan77Kavaklı61Kılıç

Türkiye Kupası: 12 Bingölspor 1–10 Ağrı 1970

Ağrı 1970 beat 12 Bingölspor 10-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 14, 2022.

Goals: M. Torun (13', 35', 41'), B. Seres (21', 56'), M. Yavaş (31'), A. Sevinç (33'), K. Baş (49'), A. Kutlu (60', 66'), Y. Aleci (63').

The match was played at Bingöl Şehir Stadyumu in Bingöl.

12 Bingölspor vs Ağrı 1970 — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Türkiye Kupası: 12 Bingölspor 1–10 Ağrı 1970