1. FC Magdeburg 4–2 SSV Ulm 1846: Result & Stats

1. FC Magdeburg

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

SSV Ulm 1846

M. Baars 110'

N. Pesch 100'

A. Millgramm 76'

A. Nollenberger 16'

E. Aksakal 60'

A. El-Zein 51'

1/9/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

1. FC Magdeburg38%

×Draw21%

SSV Ulm 184642%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC MagdeburgExpected goals in this matchSSV Ulm 1846

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

2.07

1. FC Magdeburg

1.96

SSV Ulm 1846

2.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

2.36

creates per match

1.78

2.36

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

1. FC Magdeburg

2.36

SSV Ulm 1846

1.78

allows per match

1. FC Magdeburg

2.36

SSV Ulm 1846

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1. FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Magdeburg ↓

SSV Ulm 1846 →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

1. FC Magdeburg or draw

58%

1. FC Magdeburg or SSV Ulm 1846

79%

Draw or SSV Ulm 1846

62%

Winning margin

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

20%

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

86%

1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

58%

1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

31%

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

87%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

61%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

47%

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

1. FC Magdeburg at home — creates 2.36, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

SSV Ulm 1846 away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Magdeburg attack 2.36 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.96

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.78 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

1. FC Magdeburg scores more

38%

level

21%

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

42%

SSV Ulm 1846 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SSV Ulm 1846 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

51'

60'

76'

100'

110'

SSV

Manager: Petrik Sander

Manager: Pavel Dotchev