1. FC Magdeburg 0–0 SSV Ulm 1846: Result & Stats

1. FC Magdeburg

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SSV Ulm 1846

11/9/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 12Avnet Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

1. FC Magdeburg44%

×Draw26%

SSV Ulm 184630%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC MagdeburgExpected goals in this matchSSV Ulm 1846

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.15

1. FC Magdeburg

1.46

SSV Ulm 1846

1.15

1. FC Magdeburg creates 27% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

1.39

creates per match

0.88

1.41

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

1. FC Magdeburg

1.39

SSV Ulm 1846

0.88

allows per match

1. FC Magdeburg

1.41

SSV Ulm 1846

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1. FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Magdeburg ↓

SSV Ulm 1846 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

1. FC Magdeburg or draw

70%

1. FC Magdeburg or SSV Ulm 1846

74%

Draw or SSV Ulm 1846

56%

Winning margin

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

22%

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

77%

1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

43%

1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

18%

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

68%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

32%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

60%

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.41 · 80 matches

SSV Ulm 1846 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.39 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.88 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

1. FC Magdeburg scores more

44%

level

26%

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

30%

1. FC Magdeburg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "1. FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

N. Thiede

SSV Ulm 1846 · G

9.2

Match Events

22'

53'

59'

60'

63'

C. Krempicki← A. El-Zein

63'

D. Chessa← M. Krattenmacher

63'

L. Hyryläinen← P. Maier

64'

X. Amaechi← L. Burcu

64'

T. Ito← P. Hercher

76'

L. Röser← F. Higl

76'

S. Telalović← A. Keller

81'

Bryan Teixeira← M. El Hankouri

87'

Philipp Strompf

87'

Philipp Strompf

88'

A. Marušić← A. Nollenberger

89'

Xavier Amaechi

89'

B. Allgeier← S. Telalović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1.SSV

Overview

63%Possession37%

22Total Shots6

14Corners1

14Fouls13

Shots

22Total Shots6

8On Target1

8Off Target1

6Blocked4

13Inside Box4

9Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

429Total Passes263

343Accurate Passes186

80%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0