1. FC Kaiserslautern 4–1 Preußen Münster

1. FC Kaiserslautern

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Preußen Münster

I. Prtajin 64', 24', 7'

N. Skytta 17'

O. Vilhelmsson 50'

9/19/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 6Fritz Walter Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern49%

×Draw22%

Preußen Münster29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC KaiserslauternExpected goals in this matchPreußen Münster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.44

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.92

Preußen Münster

1.44

1. FC Kaiserslautern creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

2.23

creates per match

0.96

1.93

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern

2.23

Preußen Münster

0.96

allows per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.93

Preußen Münster

1.60

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

1. FC Kaiserslautern-0.23scores less

Preußen Münster-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Kaiserslautern ↓

Preußen Münster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

1. FC Kaiserslautern or draw

71%

1. FC Kaiserslautern or Preußen Münster

78%

Draw or Preußen Münster

51%

Winning margin

1. FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+

27%

Preußen Münster wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

1. FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals

85%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals

57%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals

30%

Preußen Münster 1+ goals

76%

Preußen Münster 2+ goals

42%

Preußen Münster 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

1. FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)

63%

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.93 · 5 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.60 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 2.23 + Preußen Münster defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.92

Preußen Münster attack 0.96 + 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

1. FC Kaiserslautern scores more

49%

level

22%

Preußen Münster scores more

29%

1. FC Kaiserslautern at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "1. FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

I. Prtajin

1. FC Kaiserslautern · F

10.0

Match Events

7'

I. Prtajin↳ S. Sahin

9'

Luca Bolay

17'

N. Skytta↳ I. Prtajin

24'

30'

43'

45+3'

46'

O. Vilhelmsson← E. Amenyido

50'

O. Vilhelmsson↳ O. Batista Meier

55'

62'

62'

64'

66'

68'

M. Kirkeskov← M. Schulz

68'

Z. Sertdemir← L. Lokotsch

69'

M. Batmaz← L. Bolay

72'

J. Elvedi← M. Gyamfi

72'

A. Afeez← S. Sahin

72'

Y. Bouchama← R. Preissinger

78'

L. Robinson← L. Sirch

90+7'

Jano ter Horst

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1.Preußen

Overview

36%Possession64%

15Total Shots14

4Corners0

19Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots14

6On Target6

3Off Target5

6Blocked3

12Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

36%Possession64%

341Total Passes647

253Accurate Passes548

74%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls12

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1

2. Bundesliga: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 4–1 Preußen Münster

1. FC Kaiserslautern beat Preußen Münster 4-1 in 2. Bundesliga on September 19, 2025.

Goals: I. Prtajin (7', 24', 64'), N. Skytta (17'), O. Vilhelmsson (50').

Preußen Münster controlled possession (64%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Fritz Walter Stadion in Kaiserslautern.

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Preußen Münster — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

2. Bundesliga: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 4–1 Preußen Münster