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1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Preußen Münster — 2. Bundesliga 2018

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Kaiserslautern
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
2/2/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 20Fritz-Walter-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern50%
×Draw23%
Preußen Münster27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.83
Preußen Münster
1.28

1. FC Kaiserslautern creates 43% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 34 away

creates per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.87
Preußen Münster
1.15

allows per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.41
Preußen Münster
1.79

finishing

1. FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par
Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Kaiserslautern ↓

Preußen Münster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

1. FC Kaiserslautern or draw
73%
1. FC Kaiserslautern or Preußen Münster
77%
Draw or Preußen Münster
50%

Winning margin

1. FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+
28%
Preußen Münster wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

1. FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals
84%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals
54%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals
28%
Preußen Münster 1+ goals
72%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
37%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

1. FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)
65%
Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.87 + Preußen Münster defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.83

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

1. FC Kaiserslautern scores more
50%
level
23%
Preußen Münster scores more
27%

1. FC Kaiserslautern at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "1. FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2–1 Preußen Münster

1. FC Kaiserslautern beat Preußen Münster 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion in Kaiserslautern.