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Zwettl vs Waidhofen / Thaya — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Zwettl
Zwettl
FT
2 – 2
Waidhofen / Thaya
Waidhofen / Thaya
6/3/2022Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 28Sportanlage Edelhof

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Zwettl61%
×Draw20%
Waidhofen / Thaya19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zwettl
2.17
Waidhofen / Thaya
1.14

Zwettl creates 90% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 55 away

creates per match

Zwettl
1.79
Waidhofen / Thaya
0.71

allows per match

Zwettl
1.56
Waidhofen / Thaya
2.55

finishing

Zwettl+0.00on par
Waidhofen / Thaya+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zwettl ↓

Waidhofen / Thaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Zwettl or draw
81%
Zwettl or Waidhofen / Thaya
80%
Draw or Waidhofen / Thaya
39%

Winning margin

Zwettl wins by 2+
38%
Waidhofen / Thaya wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zwettl 1+ goals
89%
Zwettl 2+ goals
64%
Zwettl 3+ goals
36%
Waidhofen / Thaya 1+ goals
68%
Waidhofen / Thaya 2+ goals
32%
Waidhofen / Thaya 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zwettl (draw refunded)
76%
Waidhofen / Thaya (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zwettl at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.56 · 85 matches

Waidhofen / Thaya away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.55 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zwettl attack 1.79 + Waidhofen / Thaya defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.17

Waidhofen / Thaya attack 0.71 + Zwettl defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Zwettl scores more
61%
level
20%
Waidhofen / Thaya scores more
19%

Zwettl at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Zwettl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zwettl vs Waidhofen / Thaya

Zwettl and Waidhofen / Thaya drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on June 3, 2022.

The match was played at Sportanlage Edelhof in Zwettl.