Zwettl 2–1 St. Pölten II: Result & Stats

Zwettl

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

St. Pölten II

10/24/2025

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 12Waldviertler Sparkasse Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Zwettl43%

×Draw23%

St. Pölten II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZwettlExpected goals in this matchSt. Pölten II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.60

Zwettl

1.79

St. Pölten II

1.60

Zwettl creates 12% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 85 away

1.79

creates per match

1.65

1.56

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Zwettl

1.79

St. Pölten II

1.65

allows per match

Zwettl

1.56

St. Pölten II

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zwettl+0.00on par

St. Pölten II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zwettl ↓

St. Pölten II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Zwettl or draw

65%

Zwettl or St. Pölten II

77%

Draw or St. Pölten II

57%

Winning margin

Zwettl wins by 2+

23%

St. Pölten II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Zwettl 1+ goals

83%

Zwettl 2+ goals

53%

Zwettl 3+ goals

26%

St. Pölten II 1+ goals

80%

St. Pölten II 2+ goals

47%

St. Pölten II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Zwettl (draw refunded)

55%

St. Pölten II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zwettl at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.56 · 85 matches

St. Pölten II away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.79 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zwettl attack 1.79 + St. Pölten II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

St. Pölten II attack 1.65 + Zwettl defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zwettl scores more

43%

level

23%

St. Pölten II scores more

35%

Zwettl at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zwettl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff