Zwettl 3–1 St. Peter: Result & Stats

Zwettl

FT

3 – 1

St. Peter

9/20/2024

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 8Waldviertler Sparkasse Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Zwettl44%

×Draw23%

St. Peter32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZwettlExpected goals in this matchSt. Peter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.45

Zwettl

1.73

St. Peter

1.45

Zwettl creates 19% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 44 away

1.79

creates per match

1.34

1.56

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Zwettl

1.79

St. Peter

1.34

allows per match

Zwettl

1.56

St. Peter

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zwettl+0.00on par

St. Peter+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zwettl ↓

St. Peter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Zwettl or draw

68%

Zwettl or St. Peter

77%

Draw or St. Peter

56%

Winning margin

Zwettl wins by 2+

23%

St. Peter wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Zwettl 1+ goals

82%

Zwettl 2+ goals

52%

Zwettl 3+ goals

25%

St. Peter 1+ goals

77%

St. Peter 2+ goals

42%

St. Peter 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Zwettl (draw refunded)

58%

St. Peter (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zwettl at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.56 · 85 matches

St. Peter away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.66 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zwettl attack 1.79 + St. Peter defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.73

St. Peter attack 1.34 + Zwettl defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zwettl scores more

44%

level

23%

St. Peter scores more

32%

Zwettl at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zwettl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff