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Zvyahel vs Rukh Vynnyky II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Zvyahel
Zvyahel
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rukh Vynnyky II
Rukh Vynnyky II
11/15/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 13Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Zvyahel50%
×Draw27%
Rukh Vynnyky II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvyahel
1.45
Rukh Vynnyky II
0.90

Zvyahel creates 61% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

Zvyahel
1.76
Rukh Vynnyky II
1.18

allows per match

Zvyahel
0.62
Rukh Vynnyky II
1.14

finishing

Zvyahel+0.00on par
Rukh Vynnyky II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvyahel ↓

Rukh Vynnyky II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zvyahel or draw
77%
Zvyahel or Rukh Vynnyky II
73%
Draw or Rukh Vynnyky II
50%

Winning margin

Zvyahel wins by 2+
25%
Rukh Vynnyky II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zvyahel 1+ goals
77%
Zvyahel 2+ goals
42%
Zvyahel 3+ goals
18%
Rukh Vynnyky II 1+ goals
59%
Rukh Vynnyky II 2+ goals
23%
Rukh Vynnyky II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zvyahel (draw refunded)
68%
Rukh Vynnyky II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvyahel at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.62 · 21 matches

Rukh Vynnyky II away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvyahel attack 1.76 + Rukh Vynnyky II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.45

Rukh Vynnyky II attack 1.18 + Zvyahel defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zvyahel scores more
50%
level
27%
Rukh Vynnyky II scores more
23%

Zvyahel at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zvyahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvyahel vs Rukh Vynnyky II

Zvyahel beat Rukh Vynnyky II 1-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on November 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Zviahel.