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Zvyahel vs Rubikon — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Zvyahel
Zvyahel
CANC
00:00
Rubikon
Rubikon
5/14/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Zvyahel70%
×Draw19%
Rubikon11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvyahel
2.03
Rubikon
0.65

Zvyahel creates 212% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

creates per match

Zvyahel
1.76
Rubikon
0.67

allows per match

Zvyahel
0.62
Rubikon
2.30

finishing

Zvyahel+0.00on par
Rubikon+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvyahel ↓

Rubikon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zvyahel or draw
89%
Zvyahel or Rubikon
81%
Draw or Rubikon
30%

Winning margin

Zvyahel wins by 2+
44%
Rubikon wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Zvyahel 1+ goals
87%
Zvyahel 2+ goals
60%
Zvyahel 3+ goals
33%
Rubikon 1+ goals
48%
Rubikon 2+ goals
14%
Rubikon 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Zvyahel (draw refunded)
86%
Rubikon (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvyahel at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.62 · 21 matches

Rubikon away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvyahel attack 1.76 + Rubikon defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.03

Rubikon attack 0.67 + Zvyahel defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Zvyahel scores more
70%
level
19%
Rubikon scores more
11%

Zvyahel at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Zvyahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zvyahel face Rubikon (Druha Liga - Group A)

Druha Liga - Group A returns with Zvyahel hosting Rubikon. Match starts May 14, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.