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Zvijezda Gradačac vs Vis Kosova — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
CANC
00:00
Vis Kosova
Vis Kosova
3/15/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 17Bet Ole Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac53%
×Draw23%
Vis Kosova24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.83
Vis Kosova
1.14

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 61% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 61 away

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.96
Vis Kosova
1.21

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.06
Vis Kosova
1.70

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par
Vis Kosova+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

Vis Kosova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw
76%
Zvijezda Gradačac or Vis Kosova
77%
Draw or Vis Kosova
47%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
30%
Vis Kosova wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
84%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
54%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
28%
Vis Kosova 1+ goals
68%
Vis Kosova 2+ goals
32%
Vis Kosova 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
69%
Vis Kosova (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Vis Kosova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + Vis Kosova defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.83

Vis Kosova attack 1.21 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
53%
level
23%
Vis Kosova scores more
24%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zvijezda Gradačac face Vis Kosova (1st League - FBiH)

1st League - FBiH returns with Zvijezda Gradačac hosting Vis Kosova. Match starts March 15, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Zvijezda Gradačac host Vis Kosova at Bet Ole Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.