Zvijezda Gradačac 1–1 TOŠK Tešanj: Result & Stats

Zvijezda Gradačac

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

TOŠK Tešanj

9/10/2022

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 5Stadion Banja Ilidža

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac52%

×Draw24%

TOŠK Tešanj25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvijezda GradačacExpected goals in this matchTOŠK Tešanj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.14

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.75

TOŠK Tešanj

1.14

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 54% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 95 away

1.96

creates per match

1.21

1.06

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.96

TOŠK Tešanj

1.21

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.06

TOŠK Tešanj

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw

75%

Zvijezda Gradačac or TOŠK Tešanj

76%

Draw or TOŠK Tešanj

48%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+

28%

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals

83%

Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals

52%

Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals

25%

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals

68%

TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals

32%

TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)

68%

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.75

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more

52%

level

24%

TOŠK Tešanj scores more

25%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff