TOŠK Tešanj 3–2 Zvijezda Gradačac: Result & Stats

TOŠK Tešanj

FT

3 – 2

Zvijezda Gradačac

3/24/2024

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 18Stadion Luke Tešanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

TOŠK Tešanj54%

×Draw25%

Zvijezda Gradačac21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TOŠK TešanjExpected goals in this matchZvijezda Gradačac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.90

TOŠK Tešanj

1.62

Zvijezda Gradačac

0.90

TOŠK Tešanj creates 80% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 82 away

1.59

creates per match

1.02

0.77

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

TOŠK Tešanj

1.59

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.02

allows per match

TOŠK Tešanj

0.77

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOŠK Tešanj ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

TOŠK Tešanj or draw

79%

TOŠK Tešanj or Zvijezda Gradačac

75%

Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac

46%

Winning margin

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+

29%

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals

80%

TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals

48%

TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals

22%

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals

59%

Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals

23%

Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)

72%

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOŠK Tešanj at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.59 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.62

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

TOŠK Tešanj scores more

54%

level

25%

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more

21%

TOŠK Tešanj at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "TOŠK Tešanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff