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Zvijezda Gradačac vs Slaven Živinice — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
FT
0 – 1
Slaven Živinice
Slaven Živinice
10/19/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 11Stadion Banja Ilidža

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac72%
×Draw17%
Slaven Živinice11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda Gradačac
2.37
Slaven Živinice
0.81

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 193% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 23 away

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.96
Slaven Živinice
0.57

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.06
Slaven Živinice
2.78

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par
Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

Slaven Živinice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw
89%
Zvijezda Gradačac or Slaven Živinice
83%
Draw or Slaven Živinice
28%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
49%
Slaven Živinice wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
91%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
68%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
42%
Slaven Živinice 1+ goals
56%
Slaven Živinice 2+ goals
19%
Slaven Živinice 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
87%
Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Slaven Živinice away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + Slaven Živinice defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.37

Slaven Živinice attack 0.57 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
72%
level
17%
Slaven Živinice scores more
11%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Zvijezda Gradačac 0–1 Slaven Živinice

Slaven Živinice beat Zvijezda Gradačac 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Banja Ilidža in Gradačac.