Zvijezda Gradačac 2–1 Radnik Hadžići

Zvijezda Gradačac

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Radnik Hadžići

6/3/2023

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 30Stadion Banja Ilidža

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac55%

×Draw23%

Radnik Hadžići22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvijezda GradačacExpected goals in this matchRadnik Hadžići

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.02

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.77

Radnik Hadžići

1.02

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 74% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 94 away

1.96

creates per match

0.97

1.06

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.96

Radnik Hadžići

0.97

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.06

Radnik Hadžići

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

Radnik Hadžići →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw

78%

Zvijezda Gradačac or Radnik Hadžići

77%

Draw or Radnik Hadžići

45%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+

31%

Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals

83%

Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals

53%

Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals

26%

Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals

64%

Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals

27%

Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)

72%

Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Radnik Hadžići away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + Radnik Hadžići defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.77

Radnik Hadžići attack 0.97 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more

55%

level

23%

Radnik Hadžići scores more

22%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff