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Zvijezda Gradačac vs Olimpik Sarajevo — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
FT
0 – 2
Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
9/21/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 7Stadion Banja Ilidža

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac43%
×Draw25%
Olimpik Sarajevo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.54
Olimpik Sarajevo
1.28

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 20% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 8 away

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.96
Olimpik Sarajevo
1.50

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.06
Olimpik Sarajevo
1.13

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par
Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

Olimpik Sarajevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw
68%
Zvijezda Gradačac or Olimpik Sarajevo
75%
Draw or Olimpik Sarajevo
57%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
22%
Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
79%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
45%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
20%
Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
72%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
37%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
58%
Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Olimpik Sarajevo away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.54

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 1.50 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
43%
level
25%
Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
32%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Zvijezda Gradačac 0–2 Olimpik Sarajevo

Olimpik Sarajevo beat Zvijezda Gradačac 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Banja Ilidža in Gradačac.