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Zvijezda Gradačac vs Jedinstvo Bihać — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
FT
5 – 3
Jedinstvo Bihać
Jedinstvo Bihać
10/29/20221st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 12Stadion Banja Ilidža

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac62%
×Draw21%
Jedinstvo Bihać16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.96
Jedinstvo Bihać
0.88

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 123% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 95 away

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.96
Jedinstvo Bihać
0.69

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.06
Jedinstvo Bihać
1.97

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Bihać+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

Jedinstvo Bihać →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw
84%
Zvijezda Gradačac or Jedinstvo Bihać
79%
Draw or Jedinstvo Bihać
38%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
38%
Jedinstvo Bihać wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
86%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
58%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
31%
Jedinstvo Bihać 1+ goals
59%
Jedinstvo Bihać 2+ goals
22%
Jedinstvo Bihać 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
79%
Jedinstvo Bihać (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Jedinstvo Bihać away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.97 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + Jedinstvo Bihać defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.96

Jedinstvo Bihać attack 0.69 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
62%
level
21%
Jedinstvo Bihać scores more
16%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Zvijezda Gradačac 5–3 Jedinstvo Bihać

Zvijezda Gradačac beat Jedinstvo Bihać 5-3 in 1st League - FBiH on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Banja Ilidža in Gradačac.