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Jedinstvo Bihać vs Zvijezda Gradačac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Jedinstvo Bihać
Jedinstvo Bihać
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
9/16/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 6Stadion Pod Borićima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Jedinstvo Bihać50%
×Draw25%
Zvijezda Gradačac25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.58
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.04

Jedinstvo Bihać creates 52% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 82 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.52
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.02

allows per match

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.05
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.65

finishing

Jedinstvo Bihać+0.00on par
Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Bihać ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Bihać or draw
75%
Jedinstvo Bihać or Zvijezda Gradačac
75%
Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac
50%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Bihać wins by 2+
26%
Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Bihać 1+ goals
79%
Jedinstvo Bihać 2+ goals
47%
Jedinstvo Bihać 3+ goals
21%
Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
65%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
28%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Bihać (draw refunded)
67%
Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Bihać at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.05 · 95 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Bihać attack 1.52 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.58

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + Jedinstvo Bihać defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jedinstvo Bihać scores more
50%
level
25%
Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
25%

Jedinstvo Bihać at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jedinstvo Bihać will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Jedinstvo Bihać 0–2 Zvijezda Gradačac

Zvijezda Gradačac beat Jedinstvo Bihać 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Borićima in Bihać.