Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zvijezda Gradačac vs Budućnost Banovići — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Budućnost Banovići
Budućnost Banovići
9/24/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 7Stadion Banja Ilidža

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac56%
×Draw23%
Budućnost Banovići22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.84
Budućnost Banovići
1.06

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 74% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 95 away

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.96
Budućnost Banovići
1.07

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.06
Budućnost Banovići
1.72

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par
Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

Budućnost Banovići →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw
78%
Zvijezda Gradačac or Budućnost Banovići
77%
Draw or Budućnost Banovići
44%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
32%
Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
84%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
55%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
28%
Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals
65%
Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals
29%
Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
72%
Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Budućnost Banovići away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.72 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + Budućnost Banovići defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.84

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.07 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
56%
level
23%
Budućnost Banovići scores more
22%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvijezda Gradačac vs Budućnost Banovići

Zvijezda Gradačac beat Budućnost Banovići 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Banja Ilidža in Gradačac.