Zvijezda 09 2–0 Zrinjski: Result & Stats

Zvijezda 09

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Zrinjski

11/2/2019

Premijer Liga · Round 15Novi Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zvijezda 0923%

×Draw25%

Zrinjski53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvijezda 09Expected goals in this matchZrinjski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.61

Zvijezda 09

0.96

Zrinjski

1.61

Zrinjski creates 68% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 109 away

1.22

creates per match

1.45

1.78

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Zvijezda 09

1.22

Zrinjski

1.45

allows per match

Zvijezda 09

1.78

Zrinjski

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvijezda 09+0.00on par

Zrinjski+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda 09 ↓

Zrinjski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Zvijezda 09 or draw

47%

Zvijezda 09 or Zrinjski

75%

Draw or Zrinjski

77%

Winning margin

Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+

8%

Zrinjski wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Zvijezda 09 1+ goals

62%

Zvijezda 09 2+ goals

25%

Zvijezda 09 3+ goals

7%

Zrinjski 1+ goals

80%

Zrinjski 2+ goals

48%

Zrinjski 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)

30%

Zrinjski (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda 09 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

Zrinjski away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda 09 attack 1.22 + Zrinjski defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.96

Zrinjski attack 1.45 + Zvijezda 09 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zvijezda 09 scores more

23%

level

25%

Zrinjski scores more

53%

Zrinjski at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zrinjski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff