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Zvijezda 09 vs Borac Banja Luka — Premijer Liga 2019

Zvijezda 09
Zvijezda 09
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Borac Banja Luka
Borac Banja Luka
10/19/2019Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 13Novi Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zvijezda 0927%
×Draw25%
Borac Banja Luka47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda 09
1.10
Borac Banja Luka
1.54

Borac Banja Luka creates 40% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 109 away

creates per match

Zvijezda 09
1.22
Borac Banja Luka
1.30

allows per match

Zvijezda 09
1.78
Borac Banja Luka
0.98

finishing

Zvijezda 09+0.00on par
Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda 09 ↓

Borac Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zvijezda 09 or draw
53%
Zvijezda 09 or Borac Banja Luka
75%
Draw or Borac Banja Luka
73%

Winning margin

Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+
10%
Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Zvijezda 09 1+ goals
67%
Zvijezda 09 2+ goals
30%
Zvijezda 09 3+ goals
10%
Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals
79%
Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals
45%
Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)
36%
Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda 09 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

Borac Banja Luka away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.98 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda 09 attack 1.22 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Borac Banja Luka attack 1.30 + Zvijezda 09 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zvijezda 09 scores more
27%
level
25%
Borac Banja Luka scores more
47%

Borac Banja Luka at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Zvijezda 09 0–2 Borac Banja Luka

Borac Banja Luka beat Zvijezda 09 2-0 in Premijer Liga on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Novi Gradski Stadion in Ugljevik.