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Zvezdara vs RAD — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Zvezdara
Zvezdara
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
RAD
RAD
4/14/2024Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 22Stadion na Bulbulderu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zvezdara67%
×Draw19%
RAD14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezdara
2.18
RAD
0.88

Zvezdara creates 148% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 15 away

creates per match

Zvezdara
1.63
RAD
0.67

allows per match

Zvezdara
1.09
RAD
2.73

finishing

Zvezdara+0.00on par
RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezdara ↓

RAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zvezdara or draw
86%
Zvezdara or RAD
81%
Draw or RAD
33%

Winning margin

Zvezdara wins by 2+
43%
RAD wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zvezdara 1+ goals
89%
Zvezdara 2+ goals
64%
Zvezdara 3+ goals
37%
RAD 1+ goals
59%
RAD 2+ goals
22%
RAD 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zvezdara (draw refunded)
83%
RAD (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezdara at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.09 · 98 matches

RAD away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezdara attack 1.63 + RAD defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.18

RAD attack 0.67 + Zvezdara defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Zvezdara scores more
67%
level
19%
RAD scores more
14%

Zvezdara at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Zvezdara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zvezdara 4 – 1 RAD

Zvezdara beat RAD 4-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion na Bulbulderu in Beograd.