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Zvezdara vs Padinska Skela — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Zvezdara
Zvezdara
FT
0 – 2
Padinska Skela
Padinska Skela
4/4/2026Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zvezdara53%
×Draw24%
Padinska Skela23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezdara
1.71
Padinska Skela
1.04

Zvezdara creates 64% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 27 away

creates per match

Zvezdara
1.63
Padinska Skela
1.00

allows per match

Zvezdara
1.09
Padinska Skela
1.78

finishing

Zvezdara+0.00on par
Padinska Skela+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezdara ↓

Padinska Skela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zvezdara or draw
77%
Zvezdara or Padinska Skela
76%
Draw or Padinska Skela
47%

Winning margin

Zvezdara wins by 2+
29%
Padinska Skela wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zvezdara 1+ goals
82%
Zvezdara 2+ goals
51%
Zvezdara 3+ goals
24%
Padinska Skela 1+ goals
65%
Padinska Skela 2+ goals
28%
Padinska Skela 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zvezdara (draw refunded)
70%
Padinska Skela (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezdara at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.09 · 98 matches

Padinska Skela away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezdara attack 1.63 + Padinska Skela defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Padinska Skela attack 1.00 + Zvezdara defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zvezdara scores more
53%
level
24%
Padinska Skela scores more
23%

Zvezdara at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zvezdara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvezdara vs Padinska Skela

Padinska Skela beat Zvezdara 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on April 4, 2026.