Zvezdara 2–0 BSK Batajnica: Result & Stats

Zvezdara

FT

2 – 0

BSK Batajnica

11/1/2020

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 14Stadion na Bulbulderu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zvezdara67%

×Draw20%

BSK Batajnica13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZvezdaraExpected goals in this matchBSK Batajnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.81

Zvezdara

2.10

BSK Batajnica

0.81

Zvezdara creates 159% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 19 away

1.63

creates per match

0.53

1.09

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Zvezdara

1.63

BSK Batajnica

0.53

allows per match

Zvezdara

1.09

BSK Batajnica

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvezdara+0.00on par

BSK Batajnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezdara ↓

BSK Batajnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Zvezdara or draw

87%

Zvezdara or BSK Batajnica

80%

Draw or BSK Batajnica

33%

Winning margin

Zvezdara wins by 2+

43%

BSK Batajnica wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Zvezdara 1+ goals

88%

Zvezdara 2+ goals

62%

Zvezdara 3+ goals

35%

BSK Batajnica 1+ goals

56%

BSK Batajnica 2+ goals

19%

BSK Batajnica 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Zvezdara (draw refunded)

83%

BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezdara at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.09 · 98 matches

BSK Batajnica away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezdara attack 1.63 + BSK Batajnica defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.10

BSK Batajnica attack 0.53 + Zvezdara defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Zvezdara scores more

67%

level

20%

BSK Batajnica scores more

13%

Zvezdara at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Zvezdara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff