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Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Torpedo Moskva II — Second League - Group 2 2020

Zvezda St. Petersburg
Zvezda St. Petersburg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Torpedo Moskva II
Torpedo Moskva II
8/26/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Stadion Kirovets Sankt-Peterburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg42%
×Draw25%
Torpedo Moskva II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
Torpedo Moskva II
1.28

Zvezda St. Petersburg creates 17% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 24 away

creates per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.67
Torpedo Moskva II
1.13

allows per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.44
Torpedo Moskva II
1.33

finishing

Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda St. Petersburg ↓

Torpedo Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zvezda St. Petersburg or draw
68%
Zvezda St. Petersburg or Torpedo Moskva II
75%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva II
58%

Winning margin

Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+
21%
Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals
78%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals
44%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals
19%
Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals
72%
Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals
37%
Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
57%
Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.44 · 90 matches

Torpedo Moskva II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.67 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.13 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more
42%
level
25%
Torpedo Moskva II scores more
32%

Zvezda St. Petersburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zvezda St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Torpedo Moskva II

Zvezda St. Petersburg and Torpedo Moskva II drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 2 on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kirovets Sankt-Peterburg in St. Petersburg.