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Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Zvezda St. Petersburg
Zvezda St. Petersburg
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
11/12/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg46%
×Draw23%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.73
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.39

Zvezda St. Petersburg creates 24% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 38 away

creates per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.67
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.34

allows per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.44
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.79

finishing

Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par
Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda St. Petersburg ↓

Khimik Dzerzhinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zvezda St. Petersburg or draw
69%
Zvezda St. Petersburg or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
77%
Draw or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
54%

Winning margin

Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+
24%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals
82%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals
52%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals
25%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals
75%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals
40%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
59%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.44 · 90 matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.79 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.67 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.73

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 1.34 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more
46%
level
23%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more
31%

Zvezda St. Petersburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zvezda St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Zvezda St. Petersburg 2–3 Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Khimik Dzerzhinsk beat Zvezda St. Petersburg 3-2 in Second League - Group 2 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Nova Arena in St. Petersburg.