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Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Dolgoprudny — Second League - Group 2 2020

Zvezda St. Petersburg
Zvezda St. Petersburg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dolgoprudny
Dolgoprudny
9/20/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg36%
×Draw26%
Dolgoprudny38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.29
Dolgoprudny
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 13 away

creates per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.67
Dolgoprudny
1.23

allows per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.44
Dolgoprudny
0.92

finishing

Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par
Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda St. Petersburg ↓

Dolgoprudny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zvezda St. Petersburg or draw
62%
Zvezda St. Petersburg or Dolgoprudny
74%
Draw or Dolgoprudny
64%

Winning margin

Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+
16%
Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals
72%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals
37%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals
14%
Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
74%
Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
38%
Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
49%
Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.44 · 90 matches

Dolgoprudny away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.67 + Dolgoprudny defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.29

Dolgoprudny attack 1.23 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more
36%
level
26%
Dolgoprudny scores more
38%

Dolgoprudny at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Zvezda St. Petersburg 0–1 Dolgoprudny

Dolgoprudny beat Zvezda St. Petersburg 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Nova Arena in St. Petersburg.