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Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Zvezda St. Petersburg
Zvezda St. Petersburg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
7/16/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg42%
×Draw25%
Baltika BFU33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.54
Baltika BFU
1.34

Zvezda St. Petersburg creates 15% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 53 away

creates per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.67
Baltika BFU
1.25

allows per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.44
Baltika BFU
1.42

finishing

Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par
Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda St. Petersburg ↓

Baltika BFU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zvezda St. Petersburg or draw
67%
Zvezda St. Petersburg or Baltika BFU
75%
Draw or Baltika BFU
58%

Winning margin

Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+
21%
Baltika BFU wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals
79%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals
45%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals
20%
Baltika BFU 1+ goals
74%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
39%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
56%
Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.44 · 90 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.67 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.54

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more
42%
level
25%
Baltika BFU scores more
33%

Zvezda St. Petersburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zvezda St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Baltika BFU

Zvezda St. Petersburg and Baltika BFU drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 2 on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Nova Arena in St. Petersburg.