Zvezda Perm W 0–1 Lokomotiv Moskva W

Zvezda Perm W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lokomotiv Moskva W

7/26/2025

Supreme Division Women · Round 16Zvezda Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Zvezda Perm W26%

×Draw28%

Lokomotiv Moskva W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvezda Perm WExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Moskva W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.36

Zvezda Perm W

0.94

Lokomotiv Moskva W

1.36

Lokomotiv Moskva W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 75 away

1.20

creates per match

1.76

0.97

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Zvezda Perm W

1.20

Lokomotiv Moskva W

1.76

allows per match

Zvezda Perm W

0.97

Lokomotiv Moskva W

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvezda Perm W+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm W ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm W or draw

54%

Zvezda Perm W or Lokomotiv Moskva W

72%

Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva W

74%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm W wins by 2+

9%

Lokomotiv Moskva W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm W 1+ goals

61%

Zvezda Perm W 2+ goals

24%

Zvezda Perm W 3+ goals

7%

Lokomotiv Moskva W 1+ goals

74%

Lokomotiv Moskva W 2+ goals

39%

Lokomotiv Moskva W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm W (draw refunded)

36%

Lokomotiv Moskva W (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 69 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva W away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.67 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm W attack 1.20 + Lokomotiv Moskva W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.94

Lokomotiv Moskva W attack 1.76 + Zvezda Perm W defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zvezda Perm W scores more

26%

level

28%

Lokomotiv Moskva W scores more

46%

Lokomotiv Moskva W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff