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Zvezda Perm W vs Dinamo Moskva W — Supreme Division Women 2026

Zvezda Perm W
Zvezda Perm W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Moskva W
Dinamo Moskva W
9/27/2025Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 22Zvezda Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Zvezda Perm W40%
×Draw28%
Dinamo Moskva W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda Perm W
1.27
Dinamo Moskva W
1.12

Zvezda Perm W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 44 away

creates per match

Zvezda Perm W
1.20
Dinamo Moskva W
1.27

allows per match

Zvezda Perm W
0.97
Dinamo Moskva W
1.34

finishing

Zvezda Perm W+0.00on par
Dinamo Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm W ↓

Dinamo Moskva W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm W or draw
67%
Zvezda Perm W or Dinamo Moskva W
72%
Draw or Dinamo Moskva W
60%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm W wins by 2+
18%
Dinamo Moskva W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm W 1+ goals
72%
Zvezda Perm W 2+ goals
36%
Zvezda Perm W 3+ goals
14%
Dinamo Moskva W 1+ goals
67%
Dinamo Moskva W 2+ goals
31%
Dinamo Moskva W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm W (draw refunded)
55%
Dinamo Moskva W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 69 matches

Dinamo Moskva W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm W attack 1.20 + Dinamo Moskva W defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dinamo Moskva W attack 1.27 + Zvezda Perm W defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zvezda Perm W scores more
40%
level
28%
Dinamo Moskva W scores more
33%

Zvezda Perm W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zvezda Perm W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvezda Perm W vs Dinamo Moskva W

Zvezda Perm W and Dinamo Moskva W drew 1-1 in Supreme Division Women on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Zvezda Stadium in Perm.