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Zvezda Perm W vs Chertanovo W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Zvezda Perm W
Zvezda Perm W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Chertanovo W
Chertanovo W
5/1/2021Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 6Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Zvezda Perm W43%
×Draw28%
Chertanovo W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda Perm W
1.30
Chertanovo W
1.00

Zvezda Perm W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 74 away

creates per match

Zvezda Perm W
1.20
Chertanovo W
1.04

allows per match

Zvezda Perm W
0.97
Chertanovo W
1.41

finishing

Zvezda Perm W+0.00on par
Chertanovo W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm W ↓

Chertanovo W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm W or draw
71%
Zvezda Perm W or Chertanovo W
72%
Draw or Chertanovo W
57%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm W wins by 2+
20%
Chertanovo W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm W 1+ goals
73%
Zvezda Perm W 2+ goals
37%
Zvezda Perm W 3+ goals
14%
Chertanovo W 1+ goals
63%
Chertanovo W 2+ goals
26%
Chertanovo W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm W (draw refunded)
60%
Chertanovo W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 69 matches

Chertanovo W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm W attack 1.20 + Chertanovo W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Chertanovo W attack 1.04 + Zvezda Perm W defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zvezda Perm W scores more
43%
level
28%
Chertanovo W scores more
29%

Zvezda Perm W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zvezda Perm W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvezda Perm W vs Chertanovo W

Chertanovo W beat Zvezda Perm W 2-1 in Supreme Division Women on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.