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Chertanovo W vs Zvezda Perm W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Chertanovo W
Chertanovo W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zvezda Perm W
Zvezda Perm W
3/28/2026Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 3Chertanovo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Chertanovo W34%
×Draw28%
Zvezda Perm W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo W
1.14
Zvezda Perm W
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 68 away

creates per match

Chertanovo W
0.92
Zvezda Perm W
0.81

allows per match

Chertanovo W
1.58
Zvezda Perm W
1.35

finishing

Chertanovo W+0.00on par
Zvezda Perm W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo W ↓

Zvezda Perm W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chertanovo W or draw
63%
Chertanovo W or Zvezda Perm W
72%
Draw or Zvezda Perm W
66%

Winning margin

Chertanovo W wins by 2+
14%
Zvezda Perm W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chertanovo W 1+ goals
68%
Chertanovo W 2+ goals
32%
Chertanovo W 3+ goals
11%
Zvezda Perm W 1+ goals
70%
Zvezda Perm W 2+ goals
34%
Zvezda Perm W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo W (draw refunded)
48%
Zvezda Perm W (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo W at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 77 matches

Zvezda Perm W away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo W attack 0.92 + Zvezda Perm W defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Zvezda Perm W attack 0.81 + Chertanovo W defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chertanovo W scores more
34%
level
28%
Zvezda Perm W scores more
37%

Zvezda Perm W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zvezda Perm W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chertanovo W vs Zvezda Perm W

Zvezda Perm W beat Chertanovo W 1-0 in Supreme Division Women on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Chertanovo Arena in Moscow.