Zvezda Perm 1–0 Zenit Izhevsk: Result & Stats

Zvezda Perm

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Zenit Izhevsk

N. Goldobin 17'

10/8/2020

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Zvezda Perm64%

×Draw21%

Zenit Izhevsk15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvezda PermExpected goals in this matchZenit Izhevsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.86

Zvezda Perm

2.00

Zenit Izhevsk

0.86

Zvezda Perm creates 133% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 41 away

2.32

creates per match

0.93

0.79

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Zvezda Perm

2.32

Zenit Izhevsk

0.93

allows per match

Zvezda Perm

0.79

Zenit Izhevsk

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw

85%

Zvezda Perm or Zenit Izhevsk

79%

Draw or Zenit Izhevsk

36%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+

39%

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals

86%

Zvezda Perm 2+ goals

59%

Zvezda Perm 3+ goals

32%

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals

58%

Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals

21%

Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)

81%

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 2.32 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.00

Zenit Izhevsk attack 0.93 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more

64%

level

21%

Zenit Izhevsk scores more

15%

Zvezda Perm at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

N. Goldobin

46'

A. Russkikh← M. Rudnev

58'

D. Kibardin← E. Shanin

60'

D. Sobolev← N. Imullin

70'

I. Bikchantaev← E. Mogilev

76'

I. Mikhaylov← E. Mukhametzyanov

Zvezda

Zenit

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: R. Khuzin

Manager: K. Kaygorodov

46'▲A. Russkikh←▼M. Rudnev

58'▲D. Kibardin←▼E. Shanin

60'▲D. Sobolev←▼N. Imullin

70'▲I. Bikchantaev←▼E. Mogilev

76'▲I. Mikhaylov←▼E. Mukhametzyanov

Zenit Izhevsk substitutes

RusskikhKibardinSobolevBikchantaevMikhaylov

Match Recap: Zvezda Perm vs Zenit Izhevsk

Zvezda Perm beat Zenit Izhevsk 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on October 8, 2020.

Goals: N. Goldobin (17').

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.

Zvezda Perm vs Zenit Izhevsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Zvezda Perm vs Zenit Izhevsk