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Zenit Izhevsk vs Zvezda Perm — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
FT
1 – 2
Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
2/17/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zenit Izhevsk26%
×Draw28%
Zvezda Perm46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Izhevsk
0.92
Zvezda Perm
1.33

Zvezda Perm creates 45% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.50
Zvezda Perm
1.67

allows per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.00
Zvezda Perm
0.33

finishing

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par
Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Izhevsk ↓

Zvezda Perm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zenit Izhevsk or draw
54%
Zenit Izhevsk or Zvezda Perm
72%
Draw or Zvezda Perm
74%

Winning margin

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
9%
Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
60%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
23%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
7%
Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
74%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
38%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
36%
Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Izhevsk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Zvezda Perm away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Izhevsk attack 1.50 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Zvezda Perm attack 1.67 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zenit Izhevsk scores more
26%
level
28%
Zvezda Perm scores more
46%

Zvezda Perm at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Zenit Izhevsk 1–2 Zvezda Perm

Zvezda Perm beat Zenit Izhevsk 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 17, 2021.