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Zvezda Perm vs Zenit Izhevsk — Cup 2019

Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
7/28/2019CupCup · 2nd RoundStadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zvezda Perm56%
×Draw21%
Zenit Izhevsk23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda Perm
2.13
Zenit Izhevsk
1.29

Zvezda Perm creates 65% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Zvezda Perm
2.25
Zenit Izhevsk
1.33

allows per match

Zvezda Perm
1.25
Zenit Izhevsk
2.00

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par
Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw
77%
Zvezda Perm or Zenit Izhevsk
79%
Draw or Zenit Izhevsk
44%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
34%
Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
88%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
63%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
35%
Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
72%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
37%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
71%
Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 2.25 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Zenit Izhevsk attack 1.33 + Zvezda Perm defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more
56%
level
21%
Zenit Izhevsk scores more
23%

Zvezda Perm at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Zvezda Perm 6–0 Zenit Izhevsk

Zvezda Perm beat Zenit Izhevsk 6-0 in Cup on July 28, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.