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Zvezda Perm vs Yenisey — Supreme Division Women 2020

Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Yenisey
Yenisey
8/1/2020Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 1Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zvezda Perm65%
×Draw23%
Yenisey11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda Perm
1.66
Yenisey
0.52

Zvezda Perm creates 219% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 77 away

creates per match

Zvezda Perm
1.29
Yenisey
0.48

allows per match

Zvezda Perm
0.57
Yenisey
2.03

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par
Yenisey+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

Yenisey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw
89%
Zvezda Perm or Yenisey
77%
Draw or Yenisey
35%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
37%
Yenisey wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
81%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
49%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
23%
Yenisey 1+ goals
41%
Yenisey 2+ goals
10%
Yenisey 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
85%
Yenisey (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Yenisey away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.03 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 1.29 + Yenisey defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.66

Yenisey attack 0.48 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more
65%
level
23%
Yenisey scores more
11%

Zvezda Perm at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvezda Perm vs Yenisey

Zvezda Perm beat Yenisey 2-1 in Supreme Division Women on August 1, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.