Zvezda Perm 1–0 Ural II: Result & Stats

Zvezda Perm

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ural II

V. Laptev 52'

10/23/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Zvezda Perm58%

×Draw22%

Ural II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvezda PermExpected goals in this matchUral II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.02

Zvezda Perm

1.90

Ural II

1.02

Zvezda Perm creates 86% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 83 away

2.32

creates per match

1.25

0.79

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Zvezda Perm

2.32

Ural II

1.25

allows per match

Zvezda Perm

0.79

Ural II

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Ural II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

Ural II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw

80%

Zvezda Perm or Ural II

78%

Draw or Ural II

42%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+

34%

Ural II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals

85%

Zvezda Perm 2+ goals

56%

Zvezda Perm 3+ goals

29%

Ural II 1+ goals

64%

Ural II 2+ goals

27%

Ural II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)

74%

Ural II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Ural II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 2.32 + Ural II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.90

Ural II attack 1.25 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more

58%

level

22%

Ural II scores more

20%

Zvezda Perm at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

D. Arsentiev

52'

V. Laptev

56'

I. Karpuk

67'

V. Kozyrev← I. Bykovskiy

67'

A. Chebykin← E. Tatarinov

67'

S. Abdullaev← D. Arsentjev

72'

A. Pridyuk← V. Konyukhov

73'

P. Makarov← S. Alekseev

74'

R. Shcherbin← V. Laptev

80'

A. Likhachev

84'

V. Alshanskiy← I. Karpuk

88'

A. Shcherbakov

Zvezda

Ural

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: V. Petrakov

72'▲A. Pridyuk←▼V. Konyukhov

74'▲R. Shcherbin←▼V. Laptev

84'▲V. Alshanskiy←▼I. Karpuk

Zvezda Perm substitutes

PridyukShcherbinAlshanskiy

Manager: D. Klyuev

67'▲V. Kozyrev←▼I. Bykovskiy

67'▲A. Chebykin←▼E. Tatarinov

67'▲S. Abdullaev←▼D. Arsentjev

73'▲P. Makarov←▼S. Alekseev

Ural II substitutes

KozyrevChebykinAbdullaevMakarov