Zvezda Perm 3–0 Tyumen: Result & Stats

Zvezda Perm

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Tyumen

9/30/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Zvezda Perm39%

×Draw24%

Tyumen37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvezda PermExpected goals in this matchTyumen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.54

Zvezda Perm

1.57

Tyumen

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 41 away

2.32

creates per match

2.29

0.79

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Zvezda Perm

2.32

Tyumen

2.29

allows per match

Zvezda Perm

0.79

Tyumen

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

Tyumen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw

63%

Zvezda Perm or Tyumen

76%

Draw or Tyumen

61%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+

19%

Tyumen wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals

79%

Zvezda Perm 2+ goals

46%

Zvezda Perm 3+ goals

21%

Tyumen 1+ goals

79%

Tyumen 2+ goals

45%

Tyumen 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)

51%

Tyumen (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Tyumen away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 2.32 + Tyumen defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.57

Tyumen attack 2.29 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more

39%

level

24%

Tyumen scores more

37%

Zvezda Perm at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff