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Zvezda Perm vs Krylya Sovetov II — Second League - Group 4 2020

Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Krylya Sovetov II
Krylya Sovetov II
9/6/2020Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Zvezda Perm63%
×Draw22%
Krylya Sovetov II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda Perm
1.90
Krylya Sovetov II
0.80

Zvezda Perm creates 137% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 47 away

creates per match

Zvezda Perm
2.32
Krylya Sovetov II
0.81

allows per match

Zvezda Perm
0.79
Krylya Sovetov II
1.47

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

Krylya Sovetov II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw
85%
Zvezda Perm or Krylya Sovetov II
78%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov II
37%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
38%
Krylya Sovetov II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
85%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
56%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
29%
Krylya Sovetov II 1+ goals
55%
Krylya Sovetov II 2+ goals
19%
Krylya Sovetov II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
81%
Krylya Sovetov II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Krylya Sovetov II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.47 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 2.32 + Krylya Sovetov II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.90

Krylya Sovetov II attack 0.81 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more
63%
level
22%
Krylya Sovetov II scores more
15%

Zvezda Perm at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvezda Perm vs Krylya Sovetov II

Zvezda Perm beat Krylya Sovetov II 3-1 in Second League - Group 4 on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.