Zvezda Perm 3–0 Dinamo Barnaul: Result & Stats

Zvezda Perm

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Barnaul

5/22/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Zvezda Perm64%

×Draw20%

Dinamo Barnaul16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvezda PermExpected goals in this matchDinamo Barnaul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

0.98

Zvezda Perm

2.18

Dinamo Barnaul

0.98

Zvezda Perm creates 122% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 83 away

2.32

creates per match

1.18

0.79

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Zvezda Perm

2.32

Dinamo Barnaul

1.18

allows per match

Zvezda Perm

0.79

Dinamo Barnaul

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Dinamo Barnaul+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

Dinamo Barnaul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw

84%

Zvezda Perm or Dinamo Barnaul

80%

Draw or Dinamo Barnaul

36%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+

41%

Dinamo Barnaul wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals

89%

Zvezda Perm 2+ goals

64%

Zvezda Perm 3+ goals

37%

Dinamo Barnaul 1+ goals

62%

Dinamo Barnaul 2+ goals

26%

Dinamo Barnaul 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)

80%

Dinamo Barnaul (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Dinamo Barnaul away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.05 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 2.32 + Dinamo Barnaul defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.18

Dinamo Barnaul attack 1.18 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more

64%

level

20%

Dinamo Barnaul scores more

16%

Zvezda Perm at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff