Zvezda Perm 0–1 CSKA Moskva W: Result & Stats

Zvezda Perm

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CSKA Moskva W

M. Alekseeva 36'

8/26/2020

Supreme Division Women · Round 6Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zvezda Perm24%

×Draw28%

CSKA Moskva W48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvezda PermExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moskva W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.36

Zvezda Perm

0.88

CSKA Moskva W

1.36

CSKA Moskva W creates 55% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 75 away

1.29

creates per match

2.16

0.57

allows per match

0.47

creates per match

Zvezda Perm

1.29

CSKA Moskva W

2.16

allows per match

Zvezda Perm

0.57

CSKA Moskva W

0.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

CSKA Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

CSKA Moskva W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–210%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw

52%

Zvezda Perm or CSKA Moskva W

72%

Draw or CSKA Moskva W

76%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+

8%

CSKA Moskva W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals

59%

Zvezda Perm 2+ goals

22%

Zvezda Perm 3+ goals

6%

CSKA Moskva W 1+ goals

74%

CSKA Moskva W 2+ goals

39%

CSKA Moskva W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)

34%

CSKA Moskva W (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

CSKA Moskva W away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.47 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 1.29 + CSKA Moskva W defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.88

CSKA Moskva W attack 2.16 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more

24%

level

28%

CSKA Moskva W scores more

48%

CSKA Moskva W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CSKA Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

M. Alekseeva

46'

D. Yakovleva← V. Bespalikova

59'

Y. Myasnikova← T. Petrova

78'

A. Ananjeva← E. Todua

Zvezda

CSKA

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: E. Suslova

Manager: M. Zinovjev

46'▲D. Yakovleva←▼V. Bespalikova

59'▲Y. Myasnikova←▼T. Petrova

78'▲A. Ananjeva←▼E. Todua

CSKA Moskva W substitutes

YakovlevaMyasnikovaAnanjeva