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Zvezda Perm vs Chertanovo W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chertanovo W
Chertanovo W
8/11/2020Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 3Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zvezda Perm50%
×Draw28%
Chertanovo W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda Perm
1.35
Chertanovo W
0.80

Zvezda Perm creates 69% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 74 away

creates per match

Zvezda Perm
1.29
Chertanovo W
1.04

allows per match

Zvezda Perm
0.57
Chertanovo W
1.41

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par
Chertanovo W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

Chertanovo W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw
78%
Zvezda Perm or Chertanovo W
72%
Draw or Chertanovo W
50%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
24%
Chertanovo W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
74%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
39%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
15%
Chertanovo W 1+ goals
55%
Chertanovo W 2+ goals
19%
Chertanovo W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
69%
Chertanovo W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Chertanovo W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 1.29 + Chertanovo W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Chertanovo W attack 1.04 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more
50%
level
28%
Chertanovo W scores more
22%

Zvezda Perm at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvezda Perm vs Chertanovo W

Zvezda Perm beat Chertanovo W 2-0 in Supreme Division Women on August 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.