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Zvezda Perm vs Chelyabinsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
10/31/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Zvezda Perm47%
×Draw25%
Chelyabinsk29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda Perm
1.60
Chelyabinsk
1.20

Zvezda Perm creates 33% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 42 away

creates per match

Zvezda Perm
2.32
Chelyabinsk
1.60

allows per match

Zvezda Perm
0.79
Chelyabinsk
0.88

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par
Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

Chelyabinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw
71%
Zvezda Perm or Chelyabinsk
75%
Draw or Chelyabinsk
53%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
24%
Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
80%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
47%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
22%
Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
70%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
34%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
62%
Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 2.32 + Chelyabinsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.60

Chelyabinsk attack 1.60 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more
47%
level
25%
Chelyabinsk scores more
29%

Zvezda Perm at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvezda Perm vs Chelyabinsk

Zvezda Perm beat Chelyabinsk 2-1 in Second League - Group 4 on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.