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Zuzenhausen vs Villingen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Zuzenhausen
Zuzenhausen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Villingen II
Villingen II
4/26/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 29Sportanlage Häuselgrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zuzenhausen52%
×Draw21%
Villingen II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zuzenhausen
2.21
Villingen II
1.59

Zuzenhausen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Zuzenhausen
1.29
Villingen II
0.59

allows per match

Zuzenhausen
2.59
Villingen II
3.12

finishing

Zuzenhausen+0.00on par
Villingen II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zuzenhausen ↓

Villingen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Zuzenhausen or draw
72%
Zuzenhausen or Villingen II
79%
Draw or Villingen II
48%

Winning margin

Zuzenhausen wins by 2+
31%
Villingen II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zuzenhausen 1+ goals
89%
Zuzenhausen 2+ goals
65%
Zuzenhausen 3+ goals
38%
Villingen II 1+ goals
80%
Villingen II 2+ goals
47%
Villingen II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Zuzenhausen (draw refunded)
65%
Villingen II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zuzenhausen at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.59 · 17 matches

Villingen II away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zuzenhausen attack 1.29 + Villingen II defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.21

Villingen II attack 0.59 + Zuzenhausen defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zuzenhausen scores more
52%
level
21%
Villingen II scores more
28%

Zuzenhausen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zuzenhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zuzenhausen vs Villingen II

Zuzenhausen beat Villingen II 3-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage Häuselgrund in Zuzenhausen.