Zuzenhausen 1–5 VfR Mannheim: Result & Stats

Zuzenhausen

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

VfR Mannheim

10/5/2024

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 11Sportanlage Häuselgrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zuzenhausen24%

×Draw20%

VfR Mannheim56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZuzenhausenExpected goals in this matchVfR Mannheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.25

Zuzenhausen

1.44

VfR Mannheim

2.25

VfR Mannheim creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

1.29

creates per match

1.92

2.59

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Zuzenhausen

1.29

VfR Mannheim

1.92

allows per match

Zuzenhausen

2.59

VfR Mannheim

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zuzenhausen+0.00on par

VfR Mannheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zuzenhausen ↓

VfR Mannheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Zuzenhausen or draw

44%

Zuzenhausen or VfR Mannheim

80%

Draw or VfR Mannheim

76%

Winning margin

Zuzenhausen wins by 2+

11%

VfR Mannheim wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Zuzenhausen 1+ goals

76%

Zuzenhausen 2+ goals

42%

Zuzenhausen 3+ goals

18%

VfR Mannheim 1+ goals

89%

VfR Mannheim 2+ goals

65%

VfR Mannheim 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Zuzenhausen (draw refunded)

30%

VfR Mannheim (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zuzenhausen at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.59 · 17 matches

VfR Mannheim away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zuzenhausen attack 1.29 + VfR Mannheim defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.44

VfR Mannheim attack 1.92 + Zuzenhausen defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zuzenhausen scores more

24%

level

20%

VfR Mannheim scores more

56%

VfR Mannheim at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "VfR Mannheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff