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Zuzenhausen vs Normannia Gmünd — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Zuzenhausen
Zuzenhausen
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Normannia Gmünd
Normannia Gmünd
9/8/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 7Sportanlage Häuselgrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zuzenhausen30%
×Draw22%
Normannia Gmünd48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zuzenhausen
1.51
Normannia Gmünd
1.96

Normannia Gmünd creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Zuzenhausen
1.29
Normannia Gmünd
1.33

allows per match

Zuzenhausen
2.59
Normannia Gmünd
1.73

finishing

Zuzenhausen+0.00on par
Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zuzenhausen ↓

Normannia Gmünd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Zuzenhausen or draw
52%
Zuzenhausen or Normannia Gmünd
78%
Draw or Normannia Gmünd
70%

Winning margin

Zuzenhausen wins by 2+
14%
Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Zuzenhausen 1+ goals
78%
Zuzenhausen 2+ goals
44%
Zuzenhausen 3+ goals
19%
Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals
86%
Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals
58%
Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Zuzenhausen (draw refunded)
38%
Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zuzenhausen at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.59 · 17 matches

Normannia Gmünd away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zuzenhausen attack 1.29 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.51

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.33 + Zuzenhausen defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zuzenhausen scores more
30%
level
22%
Normannia Gmünd scores more
48%

Normannia Gmünd at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Normannia Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zuzenhausen vs Normannia Gmünd

Normannia Gmünd beat Zuzenhausen 3-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Sportanlage Häuselgrund in Zuzenhausen.