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Zuzenhausen vs Fellbach — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Zuzenhausen
Zuzenhausen
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Fellbach
Fellbach
5/10/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 31Sportanlage Häuselgrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zuzenhausen41%
×Draw21%
Fellbach38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zuzenhausen
2.02
Fellbach
1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Zuzenhausen
1.29
Fellbach
1.24

allows per match

Zuzenhausen
2.59
Fellbach
2.76

finishing

Zuzenhausen+0.00on par
Fellbach+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zuzenhausen ↓

Fellbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Zuzenhausen or draw
62%
Zuzenhausen or Fellbach
79%
Draw or Fellbach
59%

Winning margin

Zuzenhausen wins by 2+
23%
Fellbach wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Zuzenhausen 1+ goals
87%
Zuzenhausen 2+ goals
60%
Zuzenhausen 3+ goals
33%
Fellbach 1+ goals
85%
Fellbach 2+ goals
57%
Fellbach 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Zuzenhausen (draw refunded)
52%
Fellbach (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zuzenhausen at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.59 · 17 matches

Fellbach away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zuzenhausen attack 1.29 + Fellbach defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.02

Fellbach attack 1.24 + Zuzenhausen defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zuzenhausen scores more
41%
level
21%
Fellbach scores more
38%

Zuzenhausen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zuzenhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Zuzenhausen 0–3 Fellbach

Fellbach beat Zuzenhausen 3-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage Häuselgrund in Zuzenhausen.