Zuzenhausen 0–1 FC Nöttingen: Result & Stats

Zuzenhausen

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Nöttingen

3/15/2025

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 23Sportanlage Häuselgrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zuzenhausen27%

×Draw20%

FC Nöttingen53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZuzenhausenExpected goals in this matchFC Nöttingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

2.27

Zuzenhausen

1.59

FC Nöttingen

2.27

FC Nöttingen creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 93 away

1.29

creates per match

1.96

2.59

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Zuzenhausen

1.29

FC Nöttingen

1.96

allows per match

Zuzenhausen

2.59

FC Nöttingen

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zuzenhausen+0.00on par

FC Nöttingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zuzenhausen ↓

FC Nöttingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Zuzenhausen or draw

47%

Zuzenhausen or FC Nöttingen

80%

Draw or FC Nöttingen

73%

Winning margin

Zuzenhausen wins by 2+

12%

FC Nöttingen wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Zuzenhausen 1+ goals

80%

Zuzenhausen 2+ goals

47%

Zuzenhausen 3+ goals

21%

FC Nöttingen 1+ goals

90%

FC Nöttingen 2+ goals

66%

FC Nöttingen 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Zuzenhausen (draw refunded)

34%

FC Nöttingen (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zuzenhausen at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.59 · 17 matches

FC Nöttingen away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zuzenhausen attack 1.29 + FC Nöttingen defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.59

FC Nöttingen attack 1.96 + Zuzenhausen defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zuzenhausen scores more

27%

level

20%

FC Nöttingen scores more

53%

FC Nöttingen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Nöttingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff