Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zürich W vs Valur W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Zürich W
Zürich W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Valur W
Valur W
8/20/2021UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - 3rd Place FinalsStadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zürich W30%
×Draw23%
Valur W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zürich W
1.38
Valur W
1.75

Valur W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Zürich W
1.42
Valur W
1.00

allows per match

Zürich W
2.50
Valur W
1.33

finishing

Zürich W+0.00on par
Valur W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zürich W ↓

Valur W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zürich W or draw
54%
Zürich W or Valur W
77%
Draw or Valur W
70%

Winning margin

Zürich W wins by 2+
13%
Valur W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Zürich W 1+ goals
75%
Zürich W 2+ goals
40%
Zürich W 3+ goals
16%
Valur W 1+ goals
83%
Valur W 2+ goals
52%
Valur W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Zürich W (draw refunded)
40%
Valur W (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zürich W at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

Valur W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zürich W attack 1.42 + Valur W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Valur W attack 1.00 + Zürich W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zürich W scores more
30%
level
23%
Valur W scores more
46%

Valur W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Valur W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Zürich W 1–3 Valur W

Valur W beat Zürich W 3-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Letzigrund in Zürich.