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Zürich W vs Minsk W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Zürich W
Zürich W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Minsk W
Minsk W
9/26/2019UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 16th FinalsStadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zürich W35%
×Draw22%
Minsk W43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zürich W
1.71
Minsk W
1.90

Minsk W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Zürich W
1.42
Minsk W
1.29

allows per match

Zürich W
2.50
Minsk W
2.00

finishing

Zürich W+0.00on par
Minsk W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zürich W ↓

Minsk W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Zürich W or draw
57%
Zürich W or Minsk W
78%
Draw or Minsk W
65%

Winning margin

Zürich W wins by 2+
18%
Minsk W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Zürich W 1+ goals
82%
Zürich W 2+ goals
51%
Zürich W 3+ goals
24%
Minsk W 1+ goals
85%
Minsk W 2+ goals
56%
Minsk W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Zürich W (draw refunded)
45%
Minsk W (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zürich W at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

Minsk W away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zürich W attack 1.42 + Minsk W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Minsk W attack 1.29 + Zürich W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zürich W scores more
35%
level
22%
Minsk W scores more
43%

Minsk W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Minsk W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zürich W vs Minsk W

Minsk W beat Zürich W 3-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Letzigrund in Zürich.